Popocatépetl erupts almost constantly — and yet it rarely erupts big. That paradox is the key to understanding Mexico's most famous volcano. Our Smithsonian GVP data shows 46 recorded eruptions, but only 5 reaching VEI 4 or higher — the record is dominated by small events, including a single gas-and-ash episode that has run continuously from 2005 to 2025. The danger isn't what El Popo does on a normal day; it's the roughly 25 million people living within 100 km, and the two prehistoric Plinian blasts that prove it can go catastrophic.
By VolcanoDB Research Team. Data: Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program (eruption records); CENAPRED (current Semáforo alert); USGS/GVP (population at risk).
Alert Level
Yellow P2
Elevation
5,393m
People Within 100km
~25M
VEI 4+ Eruptions
5 of 46
What Popocatépetl Is Doing Now
As of late September 2026, Popocatépetl sits at Yellow Phase 2on Mexico's Semáforo de Alerta Volcánica, where it has spent most of the past two decades. CENAPRED — the Centro Nacional de Prevención de Desastres — continues to report recurring steam, gas, and ash emissions, occasional explosions, and incandescent fragments on the upper flanks, with periodic light ashfall in nearby towns. In early September 2026, CENAPRED logged continuing eruptive activity with gas-and-vapor plumes. The standing guidance is unchanged: do not approach the crater, and stay outside the official exclusion radius, because of the danger from falling incandescent material.
Live status (updated September 25, 2026)
Semáforo: Yellow Phase 2. Ongoing gas, steam, and ash emission with occasional explosions; official exclusion radius in effect; no crater access. For official bulletins, check CENAPRED and our active volcanoes tracker.
The 20-Year Episode: Constant, but Small
Here's what makes Popocatépetl unusual. Most volcanoes we cover spend long stretches dormant and then erupt in discrete events. El Popo does the opposite: our database records a single continuous eruption running from 2005 to 2025, graded VEI 2. In plain terms, it has been venting gas and ash more or less non-stop for about twenty years, building and destroying lava domes in its crater, occasionally throwing incandescent rock, and dusting nearby towns with ash — without ever escalating to a major explosive eruption. That's why the alert has held at Yellow rather than Red through the whole period.
Zoom out to the full record and the pattern is unmistakable. Of El Popo's 46 recorded eruptions, 41 have a Volcanic Explosivity Index we can read, and 33 of those are VEI 1 or 2 — small. Just five reached VEI 4 or higher. This is a high-frequency, low-magnitude volcano most of the time.
How Big Can It Actually Get?
The reassuring pattern above comes with a serious asterisk. Buried in Popocatépetl's record are two Plinian eruptions rated VEI 5 — one around 200 BCE and another around 3700 BCE. Eruptions on that scale sent ash and pumice across the Valley of Mexico and buried pre-Hispanic settlements; archaeologists have found villages entombed under El Popo's deposits. A VEI-5 is roughly the size of the 1980 Mount St. Helens eruption. The volcano hasn't done that in over two millennia — but the deposits prove it can.
The eruption table below shows the shape of the record: two prehistoric VEI-5 giants, a scattering of VEI-4 events, and then the long modern tail of modest activity that continues today.
Period
VEI
Type
Notes
2005–2025CURRENT
2
Continuous ash/gas venting
The current episode: ~20 years of near-constant gas-and-ash emission with periodic explosions — high frequency, low magnitude. Alert has stayed at Yellow.
1996–2003
3
Dome-building / explosions
The reawakening after decades of quiet; the largest activity of the modern era, with dome growth and stronger explosions.
823 CE
4
Explosive
A large historical eruption — the most recent VEI-4 in the record.
~200 BCE
5
Plinian
One of only two VEI-5 events in the record; Plinian eruptions of this era buried pre-Hispanic settlements under ash and pumice.
~3700 BCE
5
Plinian
The other VEI-5 — proof of El Popo's rare, catastrophic upper limit.
You can explore Popocatépetl's full data record — coordinates, eruption list, and tectonic setting — on its database page.
Is Mexico City in Danger?
This is the question that makes Popocatépetl matter far beyond volcanology. The volcano sits about 65 km southeast of Mexico City and 45 km west of Puebla, and roughly 25 million people live within 100 km of the crater — including much of the ~22-million Mexico City metropolitan area and the ~3.2-million Puebla metro. No other volcano on Earth threatens a comparable population. That's why El Popo ranks among the world's most dangerous volcanoes despite its modest daily behavior — danger is hazard multiplied by exposure, and the exposure here is enormous.
What would a large eruption actually do? The primary threat to the cities isn't lava — it's ashfall. Heavy ash can collapse roofs, short out infrastructure, contaminate water, and — critically for a hub like Mexico City — ground aviation at both the capital's and Puebla's airports. Even the current low-level activity occasionally forces brief airport closures and flight cancellations when ash drifts the wrong way. Closer in, lahars and pyroclastic flows threaten the towns on the volcano's flanks. Mexico has rehearsed for this: during a period of heightened activity in December 2000, authorities evacuated about 41,000 people from communities around the volcano — the largest evacuation of the modern episode.
The honest bottom line: a civilization-ending blast is not the realistic scenario, and the constant venting is actually a good sign — it releases pressure gradually. But a moderate-to-large eruption is very much within El Popo's range, and with 25 million neighbors, even a "moderate" event would be one of the more disruptive natural hazards a megacity could face. That's why CENAPRED monitors it around the clock.
Popocatépetl Among Mexico's Volcanoes
Popocatépetl is the most watched of Mexico's volcanoes, but it's not the only dangerous one — nor the deadliest in recent history. That grim distinction belongs to little El Chichón, whose 1982 eruption killed around 2,000 people. Here's how the key Mexican volcanoes compare; most link to their full data pages.
Popocatépetl's twin peak, joined by the Paso de Cortés saddle; no historical eruptions.
For the full national picture — all of Mexico's volcanoes and the subduction zone that feeds them — see our guide to volcanoes in Mexico. Popocatépetl sits on the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, part of the broader Ring of Fire.
Frequently Asked Questions
How tall is Popocatépetl?
Popocatépetl stands 5,393 meters (17,694 ft), making it the second-highest peak in Mexico after Pico de Orizaba. It's an andesitic stratovolcano about 65 km southeast of Mexico City and 45 km west of Puebla, joined to its dormant twin Iztaccíhuatl by the Paso de Cortés saddle. Its name means "Smoking Mountain" in Nahuatl — apt, given it has emitted gas and ash almost continuously for the past two decades.
When did Popocatépetl last erupt?
It is erupting right now, in the sense that matters least dramatically: our database logs a continuous eruptive episode running from 2005 through 2025 (VEI 2), consisting of steady gas-and-ash emission punctuated by explosions. As of late September 2026, CENAPRED — Mexico's disaster-prevention agency — reports ongoing activity with the volcanic alert traffic light (Semáforo) at Yellow Phase 2. This is persistent, low-level activity, not a major eruption.
Could Popocatépetl destroy Mexico City?
A total destruction scenario is extremely unlikely, but Popocatépetl is genuinely dangerous because of who lives nearby. Roughly 25 million people live within 100 km of the summit — including much of the Mexico City metropolitan area (~22 million) and Puebla (~3.2 million). The realistic large-eruption hazards are heavy ashfall (which can collapse roofs, ground aviation at Mexico City and Puebla airports, and foul water and machinery) and lahars in the valleys, not lava reaching the cities. Its two prehistoric VEI-5 Plinian eruptions show it can go big — which is exactly why it's so closely watched.
How many people live near Popocatépetl?
About 25 million people live within roughly 100 km of the crater, one of the largest at-risk populations of any volcano on Earth. That combination — a large, explosive-capable volcano beside a megacity — is what puts Popocatépetl on lists of the world's most dangerous volcanoes, even though its day-to-day activity is modest. See how it compares on our most dangerous volcanoes ranking.
What does the Semáforo alert level mean?
Mexico uses the "Semáforo de Alerta Volcánica" (Volcanic Alert Traffic Light): Green, Yellow, and Red, each divided into phases. Popocatépetl's current Yellow Phase 2 signals persistent activity — gas, ash, and occasional explosions with incandescent fragments near the crater — and a standing recommendation to stay outside the official exclusion radius and not approach the crater. Red phases would signal an imminent or ongoing major eruption requiring evacuation. Yellow Phase 2 has been the volcano's baseline through much of its 2005–2026 episode.