Twenty-six million cubic meters of magma sit beneath Iceland's Svartsengi volcanic system right now — more than before any of the nine Sundhnúkur eruptions since 2023. The Icelandic Met Office calls the next eruption "the most likely scenario." Here's what's happening, what's happened before, and why Iceland's volcanoes keep commanding the world's attention.
Volcanoes in DB
44
Eruptions Since 2021
12
Magma Accumulated
26M m³
With Eruption Records
33
By VolcanoDB Research Team. Data: Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, Icelandic Meteorological Office, USGS. Last updated May 20, 2026.
Iceland's Next Eruption: What We Know Right Now
Since the ninth Sundhnúkur eruption ended on August 5, 2025, Iceland has been in its longest volcanic pause in three years. That doesn't mean things are quiet underground. The Svartsengi magma reservoir has been steadily refilling — and it's now holding more magma than before any previous eruption in this series.
According to the Icelandic Meteorological Office (IMO), model calculations show that nearly 26 million cubic meters of magma have accumulated beneath Svartsengi since last July. Ground uplift continues at approximately 2 cm per month — a stable trend that shows no signs of slowing.
The IMO's assessment is blunt: "As magma continues to accumulate and pressure in the system increases, the most likely scenario is that a magmatic dike will propagate from Svartsengi toward the Sundhnúkur crater row, which could lead to an eruption."
Svartsengi Eruption Forecast — May 2026
Magma Accumulated
~26 million m³ (920M cu ft)
Ground Uplift Rate
~2 cm/month (stable)
Warning Time
20 minutes to 4+ hours
IMO Assessment
Eruption "most likely scenario"
Warning times in this series have ranged from as little as 20 minutes (barely enough to evacuate) to just over 4 hours. The IMO hazard assessment remains in effect until June 30, 2026. Grindavík — the town of 3,800 people evacuated in November 2023 — remains off-limits.
What makes this pause different from previous ones: the magma volume. Before the first Sundhnúkur eruption in December 2023, about 15 million m³ had accumulated over weeks. Now we're at 26 million m³ over 10 months. A larger magma reservoir doesn't necessarily mean a larger eruption — but it does increase the probability that something gives.
12 Eruptions in 5 Years: The Reykjanes Peninsula Crisis
Before 2021, the Reykjanes Peninsula hadn't erupted in 800 years. Then everything changed. Three eruptions at Fagradalsfjall (2021-2023) were the appetizer — spectacular but harmless, drawing tourists by the hundreds of thousands. The Sundhnúkur series starting in December 2023 was the main course: threatening a town, cutting power lines, and closing the Blue Lagoon repeatedly.
The eruptions are driven by a tectonic shift. The Reykjanes Peninsula sits on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, where the North American and Eurasian plates are pulling apart at about 2 cm per year. After centuries of dormancy, the plate boundary beneath Reykjanes has reactivated. Based on geological records, previous eruption cycles here lasted 300-500 years. We may be at the very beginning.
Complete Reykjanes Eruption Timeline (2021-2025)
1
Fagradalsfjall
Mar 19 – Sep 18, 2021
6 months
The eruption that broke 800 years of silence on the Reykjanes Peninsula. A small fissure opened in Geldingadalir valley, producing tourist-friendly lava flows. Over 300,000 people visited. No infrastructure threatened.
2
Meradalir (Fagradalsfjall)
Aug 3 – Aug 22, 2022
19 days
A second eruption near the 2021 site. Similar in character — effusive lava flows in an uninhabited valley. Peak lava discharge rate was 5x higher than 2021.
3
Litli-Hrútur (Fagradalsfjall)
Jul 10 – Aug 5, 2023
26 days
Third eruption in the Fagradalsfjall area. Larger lava field than previous two. Marked the transition period before the Sundhnúkur fissure series began.
4
Sundhnúkur #1
Dec 18-21, 2023
3 days
The game changed. A 4 km fissure opened north of Grindavík after weeks of intense seismicity (20,000+ earthquakes). Grindavík evacuated November 10. Lava fountains along the entire fissure. No damage to infrastructure.
5
Sundhnúkur #2
Jan 14-16, 2024
2 days
Lava flowed toward Grindavík, breaching defensive barriers. Some property damage on the town's outskirts. The reality that Iceland's infrastructure was at risk from this cycle became clear.
6
Sundhnúkur #3
Feb 8, 2024
< 1 day
Brief but dramatic. Lava cut the hot water pipeline supplying 30,000 people in the Reykjanes region with heating. A stark reminder that Iceland's geothermal infrastructure sits on top of the magma.
7
Sundhnúkur #4
Mar 16 – May 8, 2024
54 days
The longest eruption in the Sundhnúkur series. Lava threatened the Svartsengi geothermal power plant — defensive walls held. Blue Lagoon closed repeatedly.
8
Sundhnúkur #5
May 29 – Jun 22, 2024
24 days
Produced the largest lava field of the series. Lava flowed northeast toward Grindavík again. Defensive barriers expanded to protect the town.
9
Sundhnúkur #6
Aug 22 – Sep 5, 2024
14 days
Similar location to #5. Lava volumes lower but still significant. Warning time before this eruption was under 30 minutes.
10
Sundhnúkur #7
Nov 20 – Dec 8, 2024
18 days
Second-largest lava flow in the Sundhnúkur series. Erupted from a similar fissure location. Blue Lagoon closed again.
11
Sundhnúkur #8
Apr 1, 2025
< 1 day
Minor eruption confined to a remote area. No threat to infrastructure or travel. A brief pressure release.
12
Sundhnúkur #9
Jul 16 – Aug 5, 2025
21 days
The most recent eruption. Began southeast of Litla-Skógfell. The last eruption before the current 10+ month pause — the longest gap in the Sundhnúkur series.
Iceland's Most Famous Eruptions
Eyjafjallajökull 2010: The Eruption That Grounded Europe
On April 14, 2010, a stratovolcano that most people couldn't pronounce shut down European airspace for six days. The eruption beneath the glacier produced fine-grained ash that jet engines can't tolerate — leading to the cancellation of 100,000+ flights and stranding 10 million passengers. Airlines lost an estimated $1.7 billion.
The irony: it was a relatively small eruption (VEI 4). The real problem was geography and wind direction. The ash plume drifted southeast over Europe's busiest airspace at exactly the altitude commercial jets fly. A slightly different wind pattern and nobody outside Iceland would have noticed.
Laki 1783: The Eruption That Killed 6 Million People
The Laki eruption, part of the Grímsvötn volcanic system, was a volcanic catastrophe on a global scale. Over 8 months in 1783-84, a 27 km fissure poured out approximately 15 km³ of basaltic lava — the largest historical lava flow on Earth.
The lava wasn't the real killer. The eruption released 120 million tonnes of sulfur dioxide, creating a toxic haze (the "Laki haze") that spread across Europe. In Iceland, fluorine poisoning killed 50% of the livestock, triggering a famine that took 9,350 lives — 25% of the population. Across Europe, the sulfuric acid aerosols dropped temperatures by 1-3°C, causing crop failures, famine, and an estimated 6 million deaths. Some historians argue the resulting French food shortages contributed to the social unrest that led to the French Revolution six years later.
A Laki-scale eruption today would cause billions in economic damage and likely trigger a volcanic winter similar to the Year Without a Summer in 1816. Iceland monitors Grímsvötn closely — it last erupted in 2011.
Katla: 108 Years Overdue
Katla hasn't erupted since 1918, making this 108-year pause the longest in recorded history. Hidden beneath the Mýrdalsjökull ice cap, Katla has averaged one eruption every 40-80 years over the past millennium. When it does erupt, the combination of fire and ice produces massive glacial floods (jökulhlaups) that can devastate the lowlands south of the glacier within hours.
Historically, Eyjafjallajökull eruptions have preceded Katla eruptions. The 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption triggered monitoring concern, but so far Katla has stayed quiet — just occasional earthquake swarms that volcanologists watch like hawks.
Why Iceland Has So Many Volcanoes
Iceland is a geological anomaly — the only place on Earth where a divergent plate boundary (the Mid-Atlantic Ridge) sits on top of a mantle hotspot. This double heat source means Iceland produces far more magma than a typical mid-ocean ridge location.
The result: 44 volcanic systems spread across several volcanic zones. The most active are the Eastern Volcanic Zone (home to Grímsvötn, Bárðarbunga, and Katla) and the Reykjanes Peninsula (the current eruption series). Iceland averages one eruption every 4-5 years — though the Reykjanes crisis has accelerated that dramatically.
I've spent years tracking Iceland's volcanic data, and what strikes me is the sheer variety. You've got effusive fissure eruptions (Reykjanes), explosive subglacial eruptions (Eyjafjallajökull, Katla), and massive flood basalt events (Laki). All from an island smaller than Kentucky.
44 Icelandic Volcanoes in Our Database
Here are the most notable. Click any name to see its full eruption history, coordinates, and data from the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program.
108 years without erupting — the longest pause in recorded history. Hidden under Mýrdalsjökull ice cap. When it goes, expect massive glacial floods (jökulhlaups).
Medieval Europeans called it the 'Gateway to Hell.' Erupts every 10-20 years on average — it's now 26 years overdue. Warning time as short as 30 minutes.
Iceland's eruptions have made it one of the hottest adventure travel destinations on the planet. Even without an active eruption, the volcanic landscapes are extraordinary.
Reykjanes Peninsula
Ground zero for the current eruption series. When eruptions occur, helicopter and Super Jeep tours depart from Reykjavík within hours. Even between eruptions, you can visit the fresh lava fields at Fagradalsfjall (a 45-minute drive from Reykjavík) and the Blue Lagoon (when open). Read our volcano hiking safety guide before going near any active area.
Þingvellir National Park (Thingvellir)
Walk between the North American and Eurasian tectonic plates. This UNESCO World Heritage site is where Iceland's parliament was founded in 930 AD — and where the divergent plate boundary is visible as dramatic rift valleys. Silfra fissure offers snorkeling between the plates in crystal-clear glacial water.
Askja Caldera & the Highlands
The interior highlands are accessible only in summer (late June to September). Askja's caldera lake at 220m depth and the alien-like Landmannalaugar rhyolite mountains are bucket-list destinations. NASA astronauts trained at Askja before the Apollo missions because the terrain resembles the lunar surface.
Vestmannaeyjar (Westman Islands)
Home to Surtsey — the island that emerged from the ocean in 1963 and became a UNESCO World Heritage site as scientists watched an island form from nothing. The 1973 Heimaey eruption forced the evacuation of the entire town. You can hike Eldfell crater and visit the Eldheimar museum built around a house buried in lava.
Explore Iceland's Volcanic Landscapes
Helicopter tours, Super Jeep expeditions, glacier hikes, and eruption viewing tours from Reykjavík
Iceland isn't the only place dealing with heightened volcanic activity in 2026. Kilauea in Hawaii has erupted 47 times since December 2024. Mayon Volcano in the Philippines is at Alert Level 3. Campi Flegrei near Naples is showing ground uplift of 10 mm/month with researchers projecting a critical transition by 2033.
What sets Iceland apart is accessibility. Unlike remote submarine volcanoes or heavily restricted zones around dangerous volcanoes like Dukono, Iceland's eruptions occur in a country with excellent infrastructure, professional emergency response, and a population that treats volcanic eruptions as routine weather. You can fly into Keflavík, rent a car, and see fresh lava flows within an hour.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is an Iceland volcano erupting right now?
No volcano is erupting in Iceland as of May 2026. However, the Icelandic Meteorological Office warns that an eruption at Svartsengi/Sundhnúkur is 'the most likely scenario in coming weeks.' Over 26 million cubic meters of magma have accumulated since the last eruption ended in August 2025 — more than at any point during the 2023-2025 eruption series.
When will Iceland's next eruption happen?
The IMO considers a new magmatic dike intrusion and eruption 'most likely' but cannot predict exactly when. The current pause (since August 2025) is the longest in the Sundhnúkur series at 10+ months. Warning time ranges from 20 minutes to 4+ hours. Ground uplift continues at approximately 2 cm per month.
Is it safe to visit Iceland with volcanic activity?
Yes. Iceland is safe to visit and volcanic eruptions are localized events. The Reykjanes eruptions have not threatened Reykjavík (40 km away) or Keflavík Airport. The main impacts have been: Blue Lagoon closures (reopens between eruptions), Grindavík evacuation (the town remains evacuated), and occasional road closures on the Reykjanes Peninsula. Rest of Iceland is unaffected.
How many volcanoes does Iceland have?
Iceland has 44 volcanic systems in the VolcanoDB database, of which at least 30 have erupted in the Holocene (last 11,700 years). Approximately 13 have erupted since 1900. Iceland sits on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge where the North American and Eurasian tectonic plates are pulling apart — this divergent boundary, combined with the Iceland hotspot plume, creates one of Earth's most volcanically active regions.
Can you see a volcano erupt in Iceland?
When eruptions occur on the Reykjanes Peninsula, they're often visible from safe distances and sometimes accessible via guided tours. The 2021 Fagradalsfjall eruption attracted over 300,000 visitors. Helicopter tours, Super Jeep tours, and hiking tours operate during eruptions when conditions are safe. The next Sundhnúkur eruption may also be viewable, depending on its location.
What was the deadliest Icelandic eruption?
The 1783-84 Laki eruption (Grímsvötn fissure system) was the deadliest. The 27 km fissure produced ~15 km³ of lava — the largest historical lava flow on Earth. Fluorine poisoning from the eruption killed 50% of Iceland's livestock, leading to famine that killed 9,350 Icelanders (25% of the population). The sulfur dioxide haze spread across Europe, contributing to crop failures and an estimated 6 million deaths globally.